Wednesday, July 6, 2011

5 things to look for in the real estate market

Interest Rates RiseMany, including us, have been surprised that rates have not risen already. However, the next several months are going to see three distinct changes that will propel rates upward.

As the government starts to leave the mortgage market, private industry will step in. Private industry demands a higher rate of return on their investments. Mortgages will be no different. Studies have shown that 30 year mortgage rates could increase by 1 to 3% over the current rate.
In many higher priced markets, rolling back Conforming Loan Limits means that rates for the mortgages on these properties will resort back to the rates on private jumbo loans. The FHFA informed us that last year, the difference between mortgage rates for jumbo loans and jumbo-conforming mortgages has varied between about ½ and ¾ of a percentage point.
As the economy gets better (and we believe it will), the pressure to keep rates low to stimulate growth will abate.

Some Loan Requirements Tighten but More Can Now Get a LoanLending institutions have already started to introduce stricter mortgage guidelines. Whether the Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM) requirements are instituted as originally proposed or eased somewhat, there is no doubt that guidelines will continue to tighten as we work through the year. However, we believe the private sector will again start introducing alternative mortgage financing but at a greater expense to the consumer. You WILL be able to get a mortgage. It will just cost you more.

Housing Sales IncreaseContracted sales have shown consistent improvement over the last six months and we feel this will continue and actually begin gaining even greater momentum. We believe there is a ‘pent-up’ buying demand caused by the volatility of the market over the last several years. When interest rates start to move upward and alternative financing becomes more available, these buyers will start to jump off the fence. We believe there will be a major upswing in sales over the next six months.

Distressed Properties Increase Markedly
More people are paying their mortgage on time and that is great news for housing in the long term. However, the numbers of distressed properties currently in the foreclosure process is still very swollen. These properties will begin coming to the market in the second half of the year as short sales and foreclosures. The numbers will be staggering in some areas.

Prices Continue to Soften in Most Markets
The current housing inventory for sale and the distressed properties about to come on the market will vastly outnumber the increased supply of purchasers we will see over the next six months. There will be more houses for sale then there will be buyers purchasing them. That oversupply will continue to put downward pressure on prices through the rest of this year and into 2012.


John Holbrook - Realtor Amelia Island, Fernandina Beach & Yulee, FloridaCell: 904-415-0171 Email: holbrook66@msn.com Web: www.nassaumls.net
www.johnholbrook.blogspot.com

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