Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Amelia Island Housing Market

Here is Robert Shiller’s interview discussing National Housing issues:

You said on Bloomberg Television yesterday that there is a 50-50 chance of a double dip in housing.

I am really going out on a limb to say it’s as high as 50-50. Double dips are rare. You know, I have a forecasting model that I used to use years ago when we were doing forecasts for The Wall Street Journal in the late 1990s, and that model emphasized momentum before anything else. When prices go up, they tend to go up for years. That’s history. Whereas if they start going down, they’ll go down for years. We saw home prices decline between 2006 and 2009—three years of decline. And now that [the market is trending] up, you know, it’s perfectly plausible to think we’ll have three years or more of increases. But I’m not so sure. We don’t know how much of this is transitory because of the government support. We’re in such an unusual economy now that [a double dip] has substantial probability.

John Holbrook - Realtor Amelia Island, Fernandina Beach & Yulee, FloridaCell: 904-415-0171 Email: holbrook66@msn.com Web: www.nassaumls.net

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