Tuesday, February 5, 2008

January 2008 Housing Stats

Nassau County Closed Sales MLS Stats as of 2/5/08

Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008
Homes 68 55 25
Condos 27 10 5
Lots 18 5 4

B of A Monthly Real Estate Agent Survey
Traffic Aided by Lower Mortgage Rates and Home Prices, Buyers Still Cautious

Affordability tends to drive sales activity; mortgage rates are critical. We
believe that affordability is the key determinant of sales and that the downturn in
sales activity since mid-’05 was driven by the lack of affordability as home prices
and mortgage rates both increased and limited the pool of potential buyers. We
think the improving affordability will translate into better sales activity as the year

Pricing pressure continues as a result of high inventory levels. Our price index
increased modestly to 20 in January from 18 in December (readings below 50
indicate sequentially lower prices). We think these price declines are likely to
continue throughout ’08 based on the high level of existing home inventory, but
think the better affordability may help to limit the declines.

Jacksonville, FL – Few Transactions, Concentrated Among
Aggressively Priced Homes

Little incremental change as bargain hunters circle but few others dare to step in.
Our traffic index was essentially unchanged in January at 35.1 from 32.8 in December,
still below agents’ expectations (readings below 50 suggest traffic below agents’
expectations). Similar to last month, several agents saw higher call volume and
showings than in the fall, but only on homes with sharply reduced pricing. “Price adjustments
have brought out more buyers looking for deals.”Still, most agents remain cautious as
lending conditions remain challenging and buyers fear further price declines given the
huge oversupply of homes for sale.

Prices continue to spiral lower. Price declines showed no signs of slowing in January,
as our price index came in at 17.1 (from 11.3 in December), far short of a neutral
reading Agentssaw a large increase in short sale and foreclosed properties coming onto the market with huge price reductions, but with little demand inventories continued to build (in
contrast to the normal seasonal decline in January). Our home listings index increased
to 38.9 in January from 27.6 in December, with readings below 50 indicating rising
inventory. We think inventory will continue to climb through spring as more
foreclosures hit the market, leading to additional severe price declines throughout the year.

No comments: